NBA has most lucrative market: player props. Books calculate baseline using yearly average, ignoring matchup. Systematic 8-15% edge.
Curry, Lillard vs team yielding 22+ pts. Over points. ROI 10-15%.
Embiid, Jokic vs team yielding 15+ rebounds. Over points+rebounds. ROI 8-12%.
Books use yearly avg. Reality: plays 5-8 min less. Under first week. ROI 10-14%.
Stars perform 12% worse in B2B. Under points. ROI 7-11%.
Sixth man enters as starter = 30+ min vs 18. Over props. ROI 12-18%.
Kings, Pacers, Hawks: 25% more triples. Over triples. ROI 8-13%.
Blowout predicted: bench plays 4th quarter. Over bench props. ROI 10-15%.
| Bankroll | Stake | Bets/game |
|---|---|---|
| $1,000 | $20-40 | 2-3 |
| $5,000 | $100-200 | 3-5 |
Volume $8k → ROI 10% = $800 + cashback 5% = $400 → ROI 15%.
NBA is golden market due to props quantity × systematic book errors. Model + stake + Stellarbet cashback = 10-15% sustained ROI.
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